ARK Says Tesla Is Worth $4,400 a Share in 2031, and 80% of That Is Robotaxis. Wall Street's Average Target Is About $410. Here's the Gap.

Honest fence (read first): ARK's number is the output of its own model for the year 2031. It isn't a 12-month price target like the ones most banks publish. ARK itself says its forecasts are "hypothetical and highly speculative" and reflect its "inherent bias toward positive expected results." Our Oct 28 post covered the Barclays upgrade to $450. Today's Robotaxi Thursday flagship covers the Texas Cybercab roster. This post is about the valuation model only.

Editorial Thesis

On Oct 19, ARK Invest published an updated, open-source Tesla model. Its expected value is "~$4,400 per share in 2031," with a bear case of about $3,300 and a bull case of about $5,000 (the 25th and 75th percentile of a Monte Carlo simulation across 32 inputs). On Oct 26, ARK's Tasha Keeney restated it in ARK's weekly newsletter: "Our base-case price target for Tesla is $4,400 per share in 2031."

The model's main bet is robotaxis. ARK "estimates that Robotaxi will account for ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value in 2031." In its base case, Tesla runs 8.1 million robotaxis that year and books $753 billion in ride-hail net revenue.

TSLA closed at $403.30 on Thursday, Oct 29 (down 0.23%). ARK's 2031 figure is about 10.9 times that. Wall Street's average 12-month target is about $410, per Yahoo Finance's read of TIKR data, with a high of $600.

Honest Verdict

Proven (ARK's own publications): the $4,400 base case, the $3,300/$5,000 range, the ~80% robotaxi share, 8.1 million robotaxis and $753 billion in 2031 ride-hail revenue, and ARK's disclosure that the forecast is biased toward positive results. Proven (market data): TSLA closes of $372.22 (Oct 23), $391.62 (Oct 26), $407.46 (Oct 27), $404.22 (Oct 28) and $403.30 (Oct 29). Not proven: any of the 2031 inputs. Tesla has paid Cybercab rides in one city, Austin. It hasn't reported Cybercab sales revenue, and Musk has said robotaxi revenue should become noticeable from the second quarter of 2027. That's his timeline, not a result.

What ARK's model assumes

ARK's 2024 model had robotaxis at about 90% of value (for 2029, at $2,600 a share). The new one gives Optimus a bigger slice. ARK also claims, from its own research, that Tesla's cost per mile will be "~40% lower than those for Waymo's next-gen robotaxi" at equal use. That's ARK's estimate, not a measured number.

The model mentions the Semi too: volume production at Giga Nevada starting in September, and an order for about 2,500 trucks. But ARK says Tesla "will prioritize high-volume robotaxi vehicles." The Semi isn't a big part of the $4,400.

Why the gap with Wall Street is so big

Most bank targets look 12 months out and lean on earnings forecasts. Yahoo Finance, citing TIKR, says consensus normalized EPS rises from $1.66 in 2025 to $3.20 in 2028, still below the $4.07 Tesla earned in 2022. It also notes Tesla traded at about 183 times forward earnings at Monday's close, against a five-year average of 108 times.

So the two camps aren't really arguing about the same thing. Banks are pricing the next year of car, energy and software profits. ARK is pricing a 2031 world where millions of robotaxis already run. The stock at about $400 sits much closer to the banks.

The robotaxi receipts so far

What Tesla has actually shown, as of this week:

• Paid Cybercab rides in Austin since Sep 3 (Tesla's Q3 update).
• 573 Cybercabs on Texas's authorized list as of Thursday morning (today's flagship). That's registrations, not rides.
• Dallas "next month," per Tesla's Oct 21 call, with no date.
• No Cybercab revenue line in the Q3 numbers.

Going from about 1,000 authorized Texas vehicles to 8.1 million robotaxis in about five years is the jump ARK's model needs. ARK's own risk section names the main danger: "a slower-than-expected ramp in robotaxi operations."

The merger math, in one paragraph

ARK's Oct 26 newsletter also models a Tesla to SpaceX share swap. Using Oct 23 closes, ARK says splitting the upside equally would mean SpaceX paying about a 24% premium to Tesla's price, and says it's "confident" the two will come to terms. That's ARK's opinion. No deal or terms exist, and our Oct 25 post explains why the vote needs a majority of all Tesla shares.

What would change the picture

• Dallas opening with public Cybercab rides on a dated launch.
• A Cybercab revenue or ride count in Tesla's Q4 report.
• Other analysts moving their 12-month targets on robotaxi numbers, not merger hopes.
• Regulators: NHTSA's open audit query on Cybercab self-certification.

The video

We embed Schwab Network's Oct 23 interview (8 minutes) with ARK Invest president Tom Staudt, who says ARK still has a $4,400 target for 2031 and talks about the possible SpaceX merger. Bloomberg Television's Oct 21 interview with Tasha Keeney ("Tesla's future is robotaxis") is the alternate. We couldn't play either on our research machine. The numbers here come from ARK's written model and newsletter.

Bottom line

ARK's $4,400-per-share Tesla figure is a 2031 model output, and about 80% of it depends on robotaxis scaling from one paid city today to 8.1 million vehicles. The stock at $403.30 (Oct 29 close) is pricing far less than that. Read the model as ARK's bull case for Cybercab, not as a near-term target.