IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

This is not financial advice. This post is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold TSLA, SPCX or any other security. Do your own research and talk to a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.

TESLARATI: "The REAL Reason the Tesla-SpaceX Merger Just Got Harder (It's Not a Vote)". Facts on this page cite the primary sources below, not the video.

The claim: Texas just put the SpaceX-Tesla merger in danger.

The proof: Texas Attorney General-elect Nathan Johnson, a Democrat who takes office in January, told Bloomberg on Thursday, Nov. 12: "Any merger of companies of that consequence warrants tremendous scrutiny." On Friday, Nov. 13, Tesla stock fell 1.82% to $390.22, ending a five-session winning streak. SpaceX (SPCX) fell 0.59% to $139.11. No merger has been announced, Johnson isn't in office yet, and he didn't say what he would do. A promise to look closely isn't a block.

Editorial Thesis

This is a new political risk, not a legal one yet. Bloomberg reported on Nov. 12 that a deal could be announced as soon as December. Texas is home to both companies, and the man who'll run its attorney general's office from January says he has "no qualms about examining" Musk's relationships to the state. That matters for the timeline: a December announcement would land before he takes office, and any review would come after.

Honest Verdict

  • Confirmed (Johnson to Bloomberg, via Quartz and Investing.com): "tremendous scrutiny"; "no qualms about examining his relationships to the state"; Musk's "empire is at great risk of crossing that line." He takes office in January and hasn't contacted Musk.
  • Confirmed (Yahoo Finance data): TSLA closed $390.22, down $7.23 or 1.82% from $397.45. SPCX closed $139.11, down $0.83 or 0.59% from $139.94.
  • Not confirmed: any merger agreement, terms, or what a Texas review would cover. Johnson declined to discuss specifics.
  • Not proven: that Johnson's remarks moved either stock. Tesla had just risen five days in a row, and SpaceX's bigger after-hours drop came after Starship's booster catch was called off.

How the two stocks traded

TSLASPCX
Thu Nov. 12 close$397.45$139.94
Fri Nov. 13 open$401.68$140.17
Day range$385.83-$404.40$136.64-$142.24
Fri Nov. 13 close$390.22 (-1.82%)$139.11 (-0.59%)
After hours (7:59 PM EST)$387.16 (-0.78%)$136.26 (-2.05%)

Tesla's week still looks strong. From the Nov. 6 close of $358.22, it gained $32.00, or about 8.9%. Friday's drop ended a run of five straight up days, from Nov. 6 through Nov. 12.

The SpaceX after-hours move

Starship Flight 15 lifted off at 5:47 p.m. ET Friday. SpaceX called off the booster catch and sent the booster into the Gulf of Mexico about 6.5 minutes after launch. The ship reached orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, with a first-ever ship return to the launch tower planned for Saturday afternoon. SPCX was down 2.05% after hours. After-hours trading is thin, and Monday's open is the better read.

What this does not prove

  • It does not prove Texas can or will block a merger. Johnson promised scrutiny, not a lawsuit.
  • It does not prove the merger is coming in December. That's Bloomberg's unnamed sources.
  • It does not prove what caused Friday's moves.
  • It is not a reason to buy or sell. This is not financial advice.

What to watch next

  1. Whether SpaceX or Tesla announce a deal in December, before Johnson takes office.
  2. Any formal statement from Johnson's transition team or the current attorney general's office.
  3. Monday's SPCX open after Saturday's Starship ship-catch attempt.

Bottom Line

Texas's incoming attorney general says a SpaceX-Tesla merger "warrants tremendous scrutiny." Tesla fell 1.82% to $390.22 on Friday but is still up about 8.9% for the week; SpaceX slipped 0.59% to $139.11, and about 2% more after hours. It's a new risk on the calendar, not a block. This is not financial advice.

Source notes

Johnson's remarks from Bloomberg's Nov. 12 interview as reported by Quartz and Investing.com (Bloomberg Law body paywalled; headline read). Prices from Yahoo Finance chart data and StockAnalysis, read Nov. 14 at about 4:55 AM ET. Flight 15 details from Space.com. Video: TESLARATI's Nov. 12 explainer on why the merger got harder after the midterms, recorded before Johnson's remarks were widely reported. Alternate: I Roger That's Nov. 13 market recap (creator; AI-narrated). Educational only. This is not financial advice.

Sources