Next Big Future: "Tesla 700+ Robotaxi in Austin Now - Six Cities Scaled by Yearend to Pass Waymo". Facts on this page cite the primary sources below, not the video.
Honest fence (read first): The numbers in this post come from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles' public list of automated vehicles for Tesla Robotaxi, LLC, which we read ourselves on Thursday, Oct 29 at 4:54 AM ET. A vehicle on that list is authorized. It isn't proof that the car is giving rides, and the list has no city field. Our Oct 15 post covered the 349 count. This one covers the crossover.
Editorial Thesis
At 4:54 AM ET on Thursday, Oct 29, we pulled the full Texas DMV roster for Tesla Robotaxi, LLC twice, page by page. Both reads matched: 1,080 unique VINs, all 2026 model year. 573 are Cybercabs (543 labelled "Cybercab" and 30 labelled "cybercab" in lowercase by the state). 507 are Model Ys.
That makes the Cybercab, Tesla's two-seater with no steering wheel or pedals, 53% of Tesla's authorized Texas robotaxi fleet. It's the first time the purpose-built car has been the majority on the list.
The flip first showed up on Tuesday, Oct 27, when TeslaNorth and Yahoo Finance read 1,051 vehicles: 544 Cybercabs and 507 Model Ys. Our Robotaxi Radar's morning read that day was still 463 Cybercabs. The next morning, Oct 28, it was 573. Thursday's count is the same.
Honest Verdict
Proven (Texas DMV roster): 1,080 vehicles authorized for Tesla Robotaxi, LLC; 573 Cybercabs vs 507 Model Ys; Cybercab count up from 351 on Oct 22 to 573 on Oct 28, or +222 in six days; Model Ys flat at 507 over the same stretch. Tesla's claim, not a DMV field: paid Cybercab rides in Austin since Sep 3; the Austin Cybercab fleet "has grown by a factor of 10" (Musk, Oct 21 call); Dallas "next month" (Ashok Elluswamy, Oct 21 call). Not proven: how many of the 573 are carrying riders on a given day, where they're parked, or when Dallas opens.
How fast the list moved
Here's what our Robotaxi Radar's morning reads of the same state list show:
| Date (morning read) | Cybercab | Model Y | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 (our live post) | 349 | 420 | 769 |
| Oct 22 | 351 | 507 | 858 |
| Oct 24 | 420 | 507 | 927 |
| Oct 25 | 463 | 507 | 970 |
| Oct 28 | 573 | 507 | 1,080 |
| Oct 29 (4:54 AM ET) | 573 | 507 | 1,080 |
Two things stand out. Model Y additions stopped at 507 around Oct 22. Every vehicle Tesla has added since then is a Cybercab. And the jumps come in batches (+69, +43, +110), not one car at a time, which is how the state list has updated all month.
For scale, TeslaNorth counted 319 Cybercabs and 420 Model Ys on Oct 9. That's +254 Cybercabs in under three weeks.
What Tesla says the cars are doing
Tesla's Q3 update, filed Oct 21, says: "We started providing Robotaxi rides using Cybercabs on September 3 in Austin." It lists Cybercab installed capacity in Texas at ">125,000" a year, status "Production." That's capacity, not output. Tesla hasn't published a Cybercab production count.
On the Oct 21 call, Ashok Elluswamy said: "We launched in Austin, but that's only because we had some cabs, and we want to swarm Austin with Cybercabs everywhere. ... In fact, next month we'll be launching in Dallas." Musk said the Austin Cybercab fleet "has grown by a factor of 10 since launch about a month ago."
During the U.S. Grand Prix weekend (Oct 23 to 26), Tesla widened its Austin service area around Circuit of the Americas. Community spotters logged 1,250 Cybercab sightings on Saturday, Oct 24, according to EVBytes. Sightings count the same car many times, so they aren't a fleet size.
What the roster can't tell you
The Texas list shows VIN, make, model and model year. It doesn't show:
- City. All 1,080 are Texas-wide. Some could be staged for Dallas. The list doesn't say.
- Service. Authorized isn't operating. Yahoo Finance's Oct 27 story makes the same point.
- Rides. Tesla doesn't publish daily Cybercab trips. Its safety report (our Oct 22 post) gives cumulative miles, not a per-car count.
So "573 Cybercabs" is the size of Tesla's legal paperwork in Texas, and it's growing fast. It isn't 573 cars picking people up.
What would count as the next receipt
- Dallas: a Tesla or @robotaxi post with a launch date, then public rides there.
- Utilization: any Tesla number for active Cybercabs or rides per day.
- Federal: NHTSA's audit query (AQ26002) on Cybercab self-certification is still open. A closing letter or a finding would matter more than another roster jump.
- Other states: Nevada approved Tesla for up to 5,000 driverless vehicles in Clark County in August, with operations required to start within 120 days of the permit. No Nevada rides are confirmed yet.
The video
We embed Next Big Future's Oct 28 conversation (Brian Wang on Brighter with Herbert, 32 minutes), which walks through the 573-vs-507 crossover and Tesla's Austin miles. Those hosts' projections (passing Waymo, six cities by year-end) are their forecasts, not Tesla data. We couldn't play the video on our research machine. Every number here comes from the Texas DMV list or Tesla's own filings and call. Tesla Jigsaw's Oct 26 recap of the F1-weekend Cybercab swarm is the alternate.
Bottom line
Texas now lists more Cybercabs than Model Ys for Tesla's robotaxi company, 573 to 507, out of 1,080. That's a real, public, fast-moving number. It measures registrations. Rides are still Austin-only, and Dallas is "next month" without a date.
Bottom Line
Proven (Texas DMV roster): 1,080 vehicles authorized for Tesla Robotaxi, LLC; 573 Cybercabs vs 507 Model Ys; Cybercab count up from 351 on Oct 22 to 573 on Oct 28, or +222 in six days; Model Ys flat at 507 over the same stretch. Tesla's claim, not a DMV field: paid Cybercab rides in Austin since Sep 3; the Austin Cybercab fleet "has grown by a factor of 10" (Musk, Oct 21 call); Dallas "next month" (Ashok Elluswamy, Oct 21 call). Not proven: how many of the 573 are carrying riders on a given day, where they're parked, or when Dallas opens.Sources
- Texas DMV (TxMCCS) public automated-vehicle roster, Tesla Robotaxi, LLC: 1,080 VINs = 573 Cybercab (30 labelled lowercase) + 507 Model Y, read twice Thu Oct 29 2026 4:54 AM ET
- AI Shift News Robotaxi Radar: daily TxDMV reads (Oct 22 351/507/858; Oct 24 420/507/927; Oct 25 463/507/970; Oct 28 573/507/1,080)
- TeslaNorth (Sarah Lee-Jones), Oct 27 2026: Texas roster 1,051 = 544 Cybercab + 507 Model Y; Oct 9 was 319/420/739
- Yahoo Finance (Anan Ashraf), Tue Oct 27 2026 6:39 PM ET: Cybercabs overtake Model Ys in authorized Texas fleet; DMV data doesn't show operation
- Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, Oct 21 2026: Elluswamy 'swarm Austin with Cybercabs', 'next month we'll be launching in Dallas'; Musk 'grown by a factor of 10'
- Tesla Q3 2026 update (8-K Ex 99.1): Cybercab rides from Sep 3 in Austin; Cybercab installed capacity >125,000
- AI Shift News, Oct 15 2026: Texas DMV Cybercab roster 349 (history only)
- Nevada Department of Business & Industry, Aug 21 2026: NTA approves Tesla for up to 5,000 fully autonomous vehicles in Clark County; operations must commence within 120 days after the permit is issued
- EVBytes, Oct 27 2026: Cybercab Spotter logged 1,250 sightings Sat Oct 24 (sightings, not fleet size)
- Next Big Future (Brian Wang on Brighter with Herbert), Wed Oct 28 2026: cites 573 vs 507 of 1,080 (embed)